Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 2.994942 3.614745 4.309825 5.143964 6.114493 7.204680 8.518394
2025-03-23 2.070471 2.839724 3.797568 5.065082 6.683880 8.666441 11.260461
2025-03-30 1.447102 2.225212 3.287404 4.815449 6.924175 9.694170 13.562716
2025-04-06 1.107871 1.883981 3.031268 4.802492 7.408369 11.031064 16.359588
2025-04-13 0.863607 1.612155 2.802131 4.758945 7.803953 12.248909 19.080746
2025-04-20 0.745321 1.507599 2.796534 5.030547 8.670422 14.197384 22.995449
2025-04-27 0.635976 1.389713 2.741180 5.201674 9.384000 15.966599 26.781269
2025-05-04 0.560627 1.315203 2.742206 5.457138 10.247835 18.027888 31.163906
2025-05-11 0.464530 1.175541 2.597848 5.430525 10.624587 19.332306 34.444566
2025-05-18 0.368973 1.011792 2.375523 5.222682 10.651201 20.048018 36.809882
2025-05-25 0.288739 0.860040 2.146625 4.962508 10.542504 20.508421 38.764308
2025-06-01 0.242600 0.777598 2.047063 4.940927 10.867109 21.734481 42.089852
2025-06-08 0.205200 0.708716 1.967930 4.956767 11.278120 23.171698 45.933475
2025-06-15 0.172129 0.641794 1.880498 4.941706 11.625795 24.522166 49.724791
2025-06-22 0.134987 0.549866 1.712411 4.718643 11.519204 25.008593 51.979757
2025-06-29 0.113865 0.500960 1.643508 4.713571 11.867342 26.387009 55.970322
2025-07-06 0.095028 0.452655 1.565550 4.673461 12.131991 27.617264 59.756579
2025-07-13 0.088670 0.447726 1.608734 4.941881 13.110278 30.343016 66.576701
2025-07-20 0.079997 0.430731 1.613200 5.110781 13.876690 32.688041 72.789582
2025-07-27 0.074309 0.423928 1.647323 5.362530 14.858794 35.542561 80.165988
2025-08-03 0.062989 0.388071 1.582563 5.336368 15.177845 37.026000 84.886635
2025-08-10 0.050134 0.338563 1.461043 5.131677 15.040180 37.521402 87.630808
2025-08-17 0.038885 0.290150 1.329875 4.875454 14.742306 37.639390 89.595369